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Determining the association between physical activity and stroke: A case-control study using Bayesian model averaging.


Macario  F. Reandelar Jr.

Related Institution

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics - University of the Philippines Manila

Publication Information

Publication Type
Thesis Degree
Public Health-Biostatics
Publication Date
October 2003


The protective benefits of increased physical activity in relation to cardiovascular diseases have been thoroughly studied. Relationship between physical activity and stroke however has not been conclusively established. This paper aims to study the relationship of habitual physical activity and stroke. This is a re-analysis of a paper authored by Myra Chua aimed at establishing such a relationship using classical logistic regression. Cases were hospital patients with stroke from two government hospitals and controls were patients in the same hospitals with other chronic diseases. In this paper, another approach in the analyses is done - a Bayesian Model Averaging, the aim being the same, to determine the relationship between physical activity and stroke. It hopes to establish that relationship using such a strategy in the analyses Confounding variables that were controlled were socio-demographic data, smoking and alcoholism and medical history of hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. Multiple logistic regression was used initially to estimate the association between physical activity and stroke and the results were used as basis for the analyses using Bayesian model averaging Using low level of physical activity as the reference, results using the method of BMA showed that subjects with moderate to high physical activity have higher odds of developing stroke, 1.23 (0.67 to 1.79) controlling for other variables. Its posterior probability that physical activity is a risk factor to stroke is 2.93 percent. BMA can be seen as another way of looking at the significance of a variable in terms of posterior probabilities instead of p-values. (Author)

Physical Location

LocationLocation CodeAvailable FormatAvailability
Philippine Council for Health Research and Development Library RT120.I5 R22 2003 Fulltext Print Format

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